8/13/2023 0 Comments Perfect shift game![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Players who shot above 72% from the free-throw line but below 30% from 3-point range in their final year before the NBA since 2019 Using amateur and NBA data, we aimed to either prove or debunk that theory. It is often perceived that prospects who struggle to shoot from beyond the arc but make free throws at a high rate are likelier to eventually turn into solid shooters. That fact makes some sense, considering Wembanyama is seen as one of the draft's better shooters, while shooting is seen as a major flaw for the Thompsons. Meanwhile, the Thompson twins both failed to top the 70% mark. There is one major caveat with those numbers - Wembanyama and Henderson both shot over 75% from the free-throw line, with the 7-foot-5 Frenchman topping out at nearly 83%. Aurelien Meunier / Getty Images Sport / Getty 1 pick Victor Wembanyama, clear top-3 selection Scoot Henderson, and top-10 locks Amen and Ausar Thompson all shot below 30% from deep this year. Can bad shooters become good shooters?Īs the NBA continues to grow more reliant on 3-point shooting, one would assume the draft's top prospects would all be knockdown shooters, but at first glance, that isn't the case. Lively is the most interesting case - his 5.2 points per game at Duke would be the lowest scoring output by a lottery pick in over 20 years. Our research shows they have a greater chance at succeeding in the league. On the other side, Jarace Walker (rebounding), Cason Wallace (perimeter defense), Dariq Whitehead (shooting), and Dereck Lively (rim-running) all produced lower point totals in college but bring an elite skill that will earn them an NBA role from Day 1. Shooting just 33.5% from deep and posting a defensive rating over 105 could push him into the same boat as those who've come before. Iowa's Kris Murray (20.2 points per game) is the only player in this year's draft who meets the upper group's criteria. While many of the higher-producing college players had gaudy stats as amateurs, pure scoring ability is a tough element to shift over to the pros, as younger players generally begin their career with smaller roles than they're used to. Jackson, this season's Defensive Player of the Year, leads his draft class in blocks, while Porter Jr. Barnes ranks second in his class in assists. A clear trend among the first group is a lack of defensive ability, while in many cases, players in the latter group have had more of a chance to play through offensive mistakes due to immense defense.Īlso notable in the second group is the existence of one of a few special traits that are transferable between college and the NBA. ![]() Not only is their average VORP 16 spots higher, but two of the lower-ranked players, rookies Sharpe and Sochan, had strong finishes to the campaign and are candidates to shoot up the rankings in future seasons. It's worth noting we avoided top-five picks for players who averaged over 18 points per game, as many of those candidates were seen as surefire selections and have gone on to find predictable success.įocusing on guys intertwined in the same draft range, it's evident the players with less production have a greater outlook. Lottery picks who averaged 12 points per game or less in college since 2017, sorted by draft class VORP rank Non-top-5 lottery picks who averaged over 18 points per game in college since 2017, sorted by draft class VORP rank Though it's not a perfect statistic, every league MVP since 2006 has ranked in the top three. VORP is an all-encompassing stat meant to calculate the contributions an NBA player brings to a box score in comparison to the average player. The metric used throughout this research is Value Over Replacement Player. In this study, we break down past lottery picks who clearly fall into these two categories and sort them by their effectiveness within their draft class. No prospect is made the same, but most candidates typically fall under two categories: players who've produced at a high level in college and have been drafted with the hope their play translates to the NBA or unproven, typically younger players with elite tools and flashes of brilliance who carry less of a track record. One of the biggest considerations for draft evaluators is the age-old debate between production and potential. By looking through a few key recent trends, this analysis is meant to indicate who may be poised to rise to the top of this year's rookie crop. With nearly every new prospect representing a different version of the same thing - some blend of versatility and size - it can be nearly impossible for teams to determine who's likely to pop and who's destined to flop. It's clear the needs of teams have drastically changed. Since that 2015 NBA Draft, only nine players shorter than 6-foot-3 have been taken in the top 30. This year, a similarly lumbering post-up player wouldn't be a first-round pick. Eight years ago, Jahlil Okafor was drafted third overall. ![]()
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